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#2104: Regret-motivated planning, anti-insider indexing, & ignorance-based medicine

This week, I published The Four I Framework: A pricing model for expertise.

A good example of the second-level of the framework—information—is the Uphill Athlete forum and a couple of fun podcasts I did a few months ago:

Lastly, here are a few interesting thoughts about time, money, and muscle.

Can regret improve scheduling?

I've been wondering: Could Jeff Bezos' "regret minimization framework" help to create a "stress minimization schedule?

To experiment, I'm finishing each day by writing a list entitled, "Tomorrow Will Suck If I Don't" (TWSIID).

So far it's working well.

"I knew that when I was 80, I was not going to regret having tried this. I was not going to regret having wanted to participate in this thing called the internet. I knew that if I failed, I wouldn't regret that. But I knew the one thing I might regret is not ever having tried. I knew that it would haunt me every day."

~ Jeff Bezos from an interview on starting Amazon

Caveat emptor, index funder

Index funds claim to represent the broad market, but since September 2005, they should come with a warning label that says, "...the broad market, if you don't count insiders."

Fifteen years ago, the index industry changed its weighting method. Market-weighted indexes changed to market-weighted-but-float-adjusted.

A company's float is the number of shares that trade in the open market. Insider share ownership doesn't count in the total. This best serves the ETF companies because they only make money on shares that change hands. But it doesn't help retail investors:

"[Indexes use] an algorithm for doing the opposite of what everyone knows is the sensible action to take. The index will buy more of a company's stock when management [is selling]. The more the management sells, the higher the company's weight [in the index]. Conversely, the more aggressively the management buys the stock, the lower [the company's] weight in the index."

~ Murray Stahl, FRMO Corporation, 2012 AGM

Your doctor knows nothing about training.

Several years ago, I flew to Vancouver to get a cardiac stress test done by a sports cardiologist because I couldn't find a local one.

As a rule, I don't use doctors who aren't athletes themselves. The average activity level of the general population is so low, and the ignorance of what it takes to perform is so high, that most doctors will think a serious athlete is insane.

During my treadmill test, two non-sports cardiologists were in attendance doing some professional development work outside their field. More accustomed to seeing wheezing cardiac patients, they were shocked that I could maintain the heart rates I did and still stand upright. But the sports cardiologist gave me the green light to continue training.

Thankfully, a few athlete-doctors got together in 2017 to write The Haywire Heart. It's too technical and poorly written, but it has excellent information for Master athletes and their doctors. (The Mandrola chapters are the most helpful.)

"Remember, most doctors consider a bike ride of 20–30 minutes to be a lot of exercise. You need to make it clear that your activity level is considerably greater."

~ John Mandrola, The Haywire Heart, 2017